Did Political Constraints Bind During Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002

نویسندگان

  • Orla Doyle
  • Patrick Paul Walsh
چکیده

Did Political Constraints Bind During Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002 Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become “winners” or “losers” of transition. Using survey data we measure the percentage of individuals by region who were “afraid” and “not afraid” of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential “winners” who should vote for pro-reform parties, while latter are potential “losers” who should support leftwing parties. Using national election results and regional economic indicators, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro-reform and communist parties driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. As a result, we show that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of regional voting patterns in 1990. JEL Classification: D72, E24, E61

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

No . 117 / March 2006 Did Political Constraints Bind during Transition ? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990 - 2002

Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whe...

متن کامل

Political Budget Cycles In Developed and Developing Countries ∗

This paper uses a large panel data set to examine the relation between elections and fiscal policy. We find evidence of political budget cycles in both developed and developing countries: government spending increases before elections while revenues fall, leading to a larger deficit in election years. We demonstrate that political budget cycles are much larger in developing countries than in de...

متن کامل

Economic Transition and Elections in Poland

Poland’s economic and political transition, one of the most successful transitions, has depended very heavily on the job creation in new firms to replace the jobs lost in the formerly state-owned enterprises. This uses evidence from both survey and aggregate data to analyze four Polish elections during the transition. These analyses indicate that these de novo firms, the individuals they employ...

متن کامل

The Challenges of the Elections Systems of Persian Gulf Arab Countries

This article intends to clarify views regarding important challenges that have originated from the political, social, cultural and geopolitical structures in the elections systems of Persian Gulf Arab countries. Challenges that determine the compatibility levels of elections systems of these countries with the world’s democratic systems. An efficient elections system is the prerequisite for the...

متن کامل

Environmental Movements and Current Environmental Issues in Central Europe : the Hungarian and Czech Cases

This paper examines the structure, activism, and evolution of the Czech and Hungarian environmental movements since the political changes of 1989 and then turns to a brief overview of the current major environmental issues in the region. The main findings about the movements are that they have undergone the same processes of insitutionalization, specialization and professionalization, along wit...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2005